Welcome to my weekly update no.364
Parliament breaks for conference recess and the speculation is about more crazy tax rises…and a snap election. Meanwhile locally we are busy dealing with local issues including horrendous flytipping in Elstead. In better news Ash’s local plan has the green light to go for referendum next month.
WESTMINSTER WHISPERS
WILL HE OR WON’T HE? Lots of election speculation, not least because of Nigel Farage’s woes. These may be famous last words and all that from me but I don’t think we will have one. Firstly because Labour is not quite far enough ahead in the polls. John Curtice thinks they would need to be 10 points ahead of Reform to secure a decent majority. Anything less than that risks a Theresa May 2017 humiliation. But secondly what would be the purpose? He has three years. Many say he should raise income tax, national insurance or VAT to fund his spending promises, but calling an early election in order to raise tax is hardly a winning platform. This article from Politico sets out the arguments nicely.
DEBT DANGER Here’s what should be in the budget but probably won’t be: a plan to deal with Britain’s debt. We now spend around £110 billion a year on debt interest, nearly £3,800 for every household. That is money that cannot be spent on hospitals, roads or defence. My next substack email, out later this week, looks at why we need to deal with this and what the options are for a sensible Chancellor. I hope this one remembers what happened to the previous Chancellor called Healey in 1976 when markets concluded Britain could not pay its way. You can sign up for these fortnightly emails here which are designed to be non-party political and (hopefully) positive solutions to the big problems we face. I also discussed the budget with Anna Foster on Today on Saturday (08.50 slot).
LETBY LATEST The findings of the Thirlwall Inquiry were published last week and they were absolutely shocking: repeated warnings were not acted upon and protecting reputations came before protecting babies. But I worry the recommendations from these inquiries, though worthy, fail to tackle the cultural problem at the heart of the NHS namely the way strict national targets turn patients into numbers. I discuss this here with Cathy Newman on Sky.
INDEPENDENCE FOR PIDDINGTON! There is no more divisive issue in British politics today than the uncontrolled migration represented by small boat crossings – and many people understand exactly why the residents of Piddington (population 350) are concerned about a giant new migrant camp on their doorstep. I am married to a migrant and have always championed the benefits of controlled migration – but I also believe the failure of successive governments (including mine) to grip this issue risks shattering the tolerance and generosity that is one of our best qualities. I sat on a panel on the Jeremy Vine show last week to make the case for sorting this issue out once and for all. Next to me was someone who was a self-declared illegal immigrant. It was a feisty but civilised debate - you be the judge as to who came out on top.
Click on the image to watch this clip from Jeremy Vine
LOCAL LIFE
HORRENDOUS FLY TIPPING I am really angry about the 8 lorryloads of rubbish fly tipped at Oxenford Farm in Elstead last week. Those responsible cut the lock to gain access and left the gate open, creating a serious risk that cattle could escape onto the road. Fly-tipping is appalling but when waste is dumped on private land the landowner becomes a crime victim potentially faced with thousands of pounds of cost to safely clearing somebody else’s rubbish. I’ve raised the issue with Surrey Police and Waverley Borough Council are investigating. Waverley say it’s the worst case of fly-tipping they have seen.
GUILDFORD GREY BELT? Guildford Borough Council’s 2026 Grey Belt Assessment identifies 92% of Guildford Borough as grey belt or potential grey belt – including stunning countryside west of Guildford towards Tongham and Ash, around Shalford and Chinthurst Hill, and across the Shere area, much of which is within or proposed for National Landscape designation. The assessment highlights a much wider problem with the Government’s grey belt definition: land described as “grey” can in reality be beautiful, undeveloped countryside. Conservative MPs in Parliament have raised similar concerns and I will be looking closely at what this means for our constituency and press the Government to think again.
ASH REFERENDUM after a huge amount of work by Ash Parish Council and local residents, the Ash Neighbourhood Plan has passed its independent examination and will now go to a local referendum on Thursday 29 October. Neighbourhood Plans give communities an important say over how their area develops, including the character of new development and protection of valued local spaces. If supported at the referendum, the Ash Plan will become part of the statutory planning framework used when deciding future planning applications - so please make sure you vote when the time comes! Well done to everyone getting the Plan to this important stage.
COULD YOU HOST A UKRAINIAN FAMILY? As Russia’s attacks continue, more Ukrainians are facing the devastating loss of their homes and are seeking safety in the UK. Brilliant Cherry Gay and her team of volunteers are supporting Ukrainian families in Surrey and looking for people who may be able to offer accommodation - including for the mother of a local Ukrainian resident whose flat was recently destroyed. If you might be interested in becoming a host or would like to find out more, please contact Cherry Gay at [email protected].
CAN WE BE RICH AGAIN? – JOIN ME IN GODALMING On Friday 16 October I’ll be at Godalming Borough Hall for an evening discussing my new book … talking about my experiences as Chancellor, and how I believe we can get Britain out of the low-growth trap and raise living standards for the next generation. Bar opens at 6.30 for a 7.30pm start. Click here to register - tickets free with a suggested £5 donation to the Royal Surrey County Hospital’s Cancer & Surgical Innovation Centre campaign.
TOPIC OF CANCER Over the summer I visited University of Surrey’s Oncology Research Team, I was pleased to learn more about local charity Topic of Cancer. The charity helps fund the University’s cancer research while also supporting people affected by cancer and their families. A fantastic example of a local charity bringing together researchers, patients and the wider community to help improve cancer treatment and care.
AND FINALLY… Albury’s Catholic Apostolic Church has remained closed to the public for more than a century. Listen to BBC Surrey’s Secret Surrey podcast about its extraordinary history…. and why this remarkable church is still being preserved for the Second Coming.
